Thursday, August 20, 2009

What The Bloody Hell Are Hedge Funds?

Most of us have heard the words "Hedge Funds" splashed all over the media many times during this past economic slump. If you've been wondering what this creature called Hedge Fund is, then continue reading. This is just meant to be a introduction on the topic and is in no way exhaustive.

Why is it called a Hedge Fund? This is mainly to do with the investment vehicle's very nature of trying to hedge against market volatility and downsides. A regular unit trust fund aims to out -perform a certain benchmark. In contrast, a Hedge Fund seeks positive absolute returns even if the market is down. Let me illustrate this point.

In the Prospectus of the Public Ittikal Fund it is stated that the fund intends to beat the returns of the KLCI. So when the market is down by 20% if the fund is down by anything less than 20% it would have actually met its objectives and the fund managers can happily collect their salary. Thus, even when the fund declines in value there are still investors and the service charge is still at 5.5% (let alone the trustee and management fee).

On the other hand, where Hedge Funds are concerned, it is insufficient to say that a benchmark has been beaten. There is usually a 1% or 2% management fee but fund managers only get paid from the profits earned by the fund (typically 20%). This puts the heat on managers to actively manage the portfolio to ensure positive annual returns even in a bear market. That is why Hedge Fund managers are a sort of celebrity investor that usually only takes huge sums of money from high-end investors and institutional investors. Some Hedge Funds are only by invitation even. Additionally, many Hedge Funds actually invest their own capital in their Fund and this ensures they put in their best effort to get a positive return.

How does a Hedge Fund hedge against market movement? This involves many techniques but the most basic thing to understand is that they use something called "Short Selling" (click to read). This in essence means that they buy and hold investments that are good and at the same time also "short" investments that are dubious. This is a two pronged approach which is markedly different form regular unit trust funds that simply buys and sells stocks (or other asset classes).

Hedge Funds also have to report less to investors about their investments and thus provide them with more flexibility in what and where they get to invest. Investors in Hedge Funds are presumed to be large scale investors (above $1 million in assets) who can take a higher risk to get higher returns. The fund performance is largely based on the "talent" of the fund manager because he actually invests in assets that are pretty much the same as regular investors and yet he makes considerably higher profits.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

KLCI Constituents


This is the list of the new constituents of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI)

Monday, August 10, 2009

How I Lost Money Trading A Stock

Knowing when to buy and sell a stock is something that even experienced traders find difficult sometimes. This is because as humans, our trades aren't just objective buy and sell exercises but are influenced by our emotions.

I had some extra money on me when TM International (now known as AXIATA) was listing and thought what the heck, let me see if I can make a quick buck.

Of course at that time, market sentiment was already weakened by the global economic situation but I told myself that TMI has good backing and well, Celcom was maintaining their market share so it stood a chance of gaining at least in the first few days.

So, I purchased it at RM7 on the third day of its listing. It went up a bit. Then things went down. Over the next few months it went lower and lower. I refused to see this and kept telling myself nevermind, it will pick up. There was ample opportunity to release the stock at a relatively good price in the region of RM6.

And then it went into the RM2 region. This was when I said this whole investment is a write-off. My only saving grace was that this was not money I needed. It was extra money. Of course losing any amount of money is painful but losing money that you need to pay your mortgage or child's education will really hurt.

If you were to examine my experience, you will see that I made all the mistakes that investors should avoid. First I was extremely optimistic about my stock. Then when things went bad, I refused to see it and maintained that I will be proven right eventually. Its a case of ego buying stocks rather than a logical mind. That's how money is lost. Also, I bought the shares to make a quick buck rather than to invest. I did not do my research on the stock. In other words, it was an impulse buy.

Setting a stop loss is as important as setting a profit taking target. If you invest in the stock market you will surely face a situation where you find your stock price heading south. You can decide to weather it out or to set a stop loss and sell. You can then pick up the stock at a cheaper price and even make a profit (which would have happened if I'd purchased TMI at say RM2.50). The problem with waiting for a stock to pick up again is that it might never go back to the highs you need it to go to make a profit. In the meantime, you could have used your capital to make wiser investment choices and thus a better profit.

Friday, August 7, 2009

A Personal Experience With Top Glove

Over the past economic slump I've learnt a lot about myself and the way I invest. I'd like to share with you 2 of my buys. In the next blog post, I will write about my big mistake with TM International. Today I will write about my Top Glove Corporation purchase.

I purchased Topglov (Stock Code: 7113) in May 08 at about RM5.00. I've kept the stock all through the down time because I bought it believing in the business rather than for its stock price. Incidentally, RM5.00 was a higher price to pay for it at that time. I had planned to keep the stock for the next few years.

Then the whole market slump came and well, I recently sold Top Glove for RM6.85. As of today (Aug 6th) it is at RM7.26. Timing the market is not my strategy for the simple reason that I find it too difficult to do. I rather buy into fundamentally sound companies which have a great business model and then purchase them for the long term. Purchasing a stock for the long term to me doesn't mean one cannot sell the stock and lock in profit and wait for another opportune moment to pick it up. Especially in market conditions like these where the world economic data is still bad. Also, there is an extraordinary factor helping Top Glove and that is the current surge in demand for rubber gloves worldwide due to all the Influenza viruses.

I will pick up Top Glove stocks again once this current market exuberance has died down. I do think the market is due for some correction as it seems to have run ahead while the economy is still a wounded soldier. I find it easier to learn about a few stocks and keep updating myself on their activity rather than playing the market. No doubt there are some people out there who can make money doing exactly that but I feel we all have to pick our own strategy. It isn't right or wrong but one has to see how much capital is available and also ones risk appetite.

So, buy a stock based on fundamentals. Set a target for your profit taking. Say a 15% profit. Even if the market goes higher you may want to sell because you've achieved your target. Greediness won't pay in the long run. Also once you have a few stocks which you think have good fundamentals (e.g. Aeon, Public Bank, BJToto and Muhibbah Engineering), keep learning more about them. Treat the stock market as a place to invest rather than a place to place your bets.

For those of you who fancy a copy of Standard & Poors Equity Researh on Top Glove please drop us an email and we will gladly send it to you.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

We're back!

I've gotten many emails and comments asking where we've disappeared to for the past few months. There isn't a massive explanation to it other than we've become really busy with work and life. Putting up even a simple blog post requires some reading and confirmation of facts and we just couldn't put in that time. However, we've decided to re-ignite our blogging fire so to speak due to the great support and encouragement our readers have given us.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The Boards Have Been Switched

There have been some changes to the structure of our local stock exchange. Where previously it consisted of the Main Board, Second Board and MESDAQ Market there will now only be two boards.

The Main and Second Board will be grouped together under what is called a Main Market. The MESDAQ market (a bunch of tech stocks and slightly more dubious companies) will now be called the ACE Market. The ACE Market is an attempt to provide a platform for new and emerging companies. Hopefully the listing requirements will also change accordingly to ensure better quality of stocks are listed compared to the previous MESDAQ Market.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Setia Alam Houses

Recently I went to Setia Alam (a project by SP Setia) to check out the houses there. I'm looking for a house to buy sometime in 2009. I really like their green concept, the wide roads and underground drainage. Really nice environment. Of course all this comes with a price. Houses here are rather small (or rather houses that are in my budget are somewhat small). One can get much cheaper houses in the nearby Bukit Raja. Still for me the planning and house surroundings really matter when it comes to picking a house.

There are two main exits that I've identified for Setia Alam. First is via the Setia Alam Interchange that will link you to the New Klang Valley Expressway (NKVE). The other exit takes you to Jalan Meru. I'm wondering how traffic will be once the Klang Sentral bus station comes online.

House prices will drop a bit more in my opinion. For example houses that were going for almost RM270,000 are currently about RM20k to RM30k cheaper compared to mid/early 2008.

Please do email me some feedback about what you think of Setia Alam. Oh and by the way I intend to stay here and its not meant to be an investment. Of course if price appreciates its a bonus but its not the primary motive if you get what I'm saying. Cheers!

Thursday, October 16, 2008

What's Up With KNM?

Seems like KNM shares took another hit following yesterday's plunge. During intra-day trade today, it's share price sunk to RM0.39 but recovered to close at RM0.685. Brokers and investors alike are scratching their heads over this massive price movement. Looking at the volume (340 million) of shares transacted definitely shows that some big players have a hand in this.

In a filing with Bursa, I see that the KNM has purchased about 16 million of their own shares today. Their highest purchase price is RM0.69 whereas their lowest purchase price is RM0.415. Got to watch out for the company propping up their own price.

However, as I mentioned yesterday, KNM's business fundamentals remain intact. Oil price are facing downward pressure but I think this is temporary. Demand is still there. After all, with all the credit crunch and world recession, crude oil prices are still higher than they were last year. This will be good for KNM as they are service providers to the Oil & Gas industry. As long as this industry booms, KNM will be able to fill its coffers.

KNM's management has also indicated that its order book stands at a healthy RM4.7 billion. With all the recent share price movement, AmResearch has lowered their 2009 target price from RM2.66 to RM1.48. If this is anything to go by, then investors may be looking at some healthy gain if accumulation is done at current prices.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

KNM Share Price Plunges

KNM's stock price took a hard hit today by closing almost 24% (RM0.69) lower from yesterday's price of RM0.905. Seems like the Boston-based FMR LLC and Bermuda-incorporated FIL Ltd (Fidelity), both major shareholders of KNM, have been selling some of their stocks. I presume this has more to do with their position back in US where things are getting tight economically rather than KNM's fundamentals. As far as I can see, their fundamentals are fine. One may argue that they have been rather aggressive with their expansion plans but KNM's management team has always proven their prowess in the past.

However, a huge drop like this does seem odd. Apparently Lee Swee Eng, managing director of KNM, hasn't got a clue as to what's going on. “I do not know what is happening. I’m a bit surprised”, Lee says. Great. As usual whenever companies are queried by Bursa about unusual market activity, they just shrug their shoulders and act surprised. Lets hope some news will come out tomorrow that will shed light on this situation.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Farewell To VADS

Looks like one of my favourite counters on Bursa is going private. VADS is being taken private by its major shareholder, Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM). TM currently holds a 63% stake in VADS. I personally think the offer price of RM7.60 is rather unattractive for a great company like VADS. For the past years, rain or shine, VADS has always managed to roll out good profits. Why should I as a minority shareholder let it go for such a small premium?

Below is the Fair Value Estimates by various analysts. The average Fair Value Price for VADS is around RM7.70. TM really has a lot to gain from taking VADS private and conversely the minority shareholders have everything to lose. VADS growth has not lost steam and would have given investors something to be happy about in lackluster economic times like these.

Source: Business Times Online

Other related articles:

VADS Rating Upgraded to Strong Buy

VADS Bhd: Resilient Stock?